Something Doesn't Add Up: Recent MCGI Mass Baptism Claims Under Fire
- Ray O. Light
- Jun 15
- 4 min read
Updated: Jun 16
June 15, 2025 | Special Report
🧯 Faith in Numbers.
The Members Church of God International (MCGI) announced with fanfare that 1,315 souls were baptized into their fold this June. But a closer look—grounded in field data, historical patterns, and statistical logic—suggests a far less miraculous number: somewhere between 240 and 300, at most.
That’s not a rounding error. That’s a potential inflation of over 400%.
So what’s going on?
📉 The Downward Spiral They Don’t Want You to See
For years, MCGI has used baptism figures as proof of divine favor, and as justification for its massive media, logistics, and recruitment machine. But peel back the gloss, and the numbers tell a different story: not of explosive growth, but of systemic decline.
Here’s their own trend:
Year | Average Monthly Baptisms |
2020 | ~5,000 |
2021 | ~3,000 |
2022 | ~2,500 |
2023 | ~1,800 |
2024 | ~1,500 |
2025 (pre-June) | ~1,200 |
That’s a 76% drop in five years. If this trend continues, or worsens, the group’s public baptism claims become less a miracle, and more a marketing move.
🕵️♀️ The Ground-Level Reality: The Math isn't Mathing
Between April and May 2025, Post-MCGI Society's research group quietly surveyed 18 MCGI chapters across the Philippines, Australia, UK, UAE, Japan, and in Seowon (South Korea). These represent about 1% of the organization’s global reach.
Here’s what we found:
8 locales: No indoctrination, no events, no baptisms.
5 locales: <5 attendees, zero baptisms.
2 locales: ~2 baptisms each.
2 locales: <3 baptisms.
1 locale: ~4 baptisms.
Total verified baptisms: 13 people out of 18 big local and international chapters we have sampled!
That’s it.
📊 Crunching the Numbers
We didn’t stop at observation. Using a layered estimation model, we calculated what the true global figure might look like via statistical model used by election survey firms and social weather stations.
Step 1: Raw Extrapolation
13 baptisms across 18 chapters → 0.72 baptisms per locale
Multiplied by 1,800 chapters → 1,296 (flawed: assumes all chapters are active, meaning with mass indoctrination attendees)
Step 2: Adjust for Inactive Chapters (no mass indoctrination attendees)
44% of surveyed chapters were inactive or zero attendance.
Adjusted active chapters: 1,800 × 0.56 = 1,008
1,008 × 0.72 ≈ 726 baptisms
Still too high.
Step 3: Focus Only on Productive Chapters (with mass indoctrination attendees)
Only 5 of 18 locales had baptisms → 27.7% productivity
1,800 × 0.277 = 499 active locales
499 × (13 ÷ 5) = ~1,297 (overstated, due to sample skew)
Step 4: Apply the Downtrend Modulator
MCGI’s own decline ratio: 1,200 ÷ 5,000 = 0.24
1,296 × 0.24 = ~311
Step 5: Correct for Bias
Active chapters were likely overrepresented → × 0.9
Final estimate: ~280 baptisms
Sanity Check:
Even using the 13 baptisms × 18 chapters × 56% activity = ~240
🔎 MCGI Mass Baptism: The Real Numbers?
Estimate Type | Baptisms |
Conservative Floor | 240 |
Most Likely | 280 |
Maximum Cap | 300 |
MCGI's Claim | 1,315 |
If true, MCGI’s announcement is not just misleading, it’s statistically implausible.
📉 Why the low turnout?
And why aren’t attendees proceeding to baptism? With only a handful of participants per locale, there’s little room for meaningful persuasion or spiritual conviction. Yet MCGI continues to pour resources and member donations into these events.
The low conversion rate may stem from a deeper issue. Kuya Daniel Razon's evident lack of charisma as a spiritual leader. Food-baiting tactics are no longer converting interest into commitment. In one major MCGI locale surveyed by our field team, a staggering 85% of seats were left empty during a recent mass indoctrination. Only three individuals showed up, and none chose to be baptized. If that’s the best turnout from a flagship chapter, what does it say about the rest?
🧠 Why It Matters
Numbers matter. They shape morale. They attract donation drives. They justify spending.
When a religious group inflates its growth metrics, it's not just an internal issue, it becomes a public integrity issue, especially for groups receiving tax-deductible donations, owning media empires, or aligning with politicians.
What we’re seeing is classic organizational behavior in decline: inflate the output to hide the rot.
📚 Academic Footnote: This Isn’t New
High-control groups in decline often resort to inflating visible "success metrics" to preserve cohesion. Just as authoritarian states fudge GDP or voter turnout, cultic systems tweak baptisms and attendance. The 2025 MCGI baptism report reads like a doomsday stock bounce—one last push to prove relevance before the bottom falls out.
🛑 Conclusion: Show Us the Records
If MCGI truly baptized 1,315 people, we invite them to release:
Chapter-level breakdowns
News articles
Video evidence
Until then, our numbers suggest something far less divine and far more manufactured.
Editor's Note: The author is a quantitative analyst in the insurance sector with expertise in statistical modeling, data analysis, and financial risk forecasting. He also serves as a consultant for a Hong Kong–based hedge fund. His work applies evidence-driven methodologies to analyze institutional behavior, including that of nonprofit organizations.
